Syrian Civil War 2.0: Now in 8K!

The 15 sided civil war in Syria has reared its ugly head... again. But why now? And what does it mean for Israel and the West?

Remember the civil war in Syria? Well guess what? It’s back!

Last week, rebel groups stormed out of Idlib province and swiftly took over the city of Aleppo, the second largest city in Syria. People think this shock offensive restarted the civil war, but in reality, it ended an extended pause. So, what’s been going on over there, how does it affect the West, and does it affect Israel?

World War in Miniature

While reporting on the conflict has basically stopped, there’s been fighting happening all over the country for the past five years. However, there haven’t been many territorial changes for a while – and THAT is what makes what happened in Aleppo so big. Let’s take a look at where the land grabs more or less froze back in 2020.

(Source)

Woah, that looks complicated. But the reality is MUCH more complicated than it appears.

If you don’t feel like reading all of this background, please skip this section.

Let’s go through what’s going on:

Red area - This is where the Assad regime retains full control.

Yellow area - Hasake Province and Qamishlo

This area is controlled by Kurdish forces with some neighborhoods of major cities under Syrian government control. The Kurdish forces, called the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), include the YPG and YPJ. The SDF is backed by the US and Europe. However, there are also connections between the SDF and the PKK, a Kurdish group that’s considered a terror organization by the US and EU and primarily attacks NATO ally Turkey. Turkey will at times go in with the Syrian military and attack the SDF. Currently, the SDF is attacking Syrian military positions on the Euphrates river. By the way, the Turks HATE the Kurds.

(Source: AFP)

Blue strip - Ras al-Ayn

This area was controlled by the US backed SDF and had a large Kurdish population until 2019. That’s when Turkey said “MINE”. They took the strip of land, kicking out 300,000 Kurds in the process, and then transferred thousands of Syrian Arab refugees who had fled to Turkey to the area and built settlements for them. This is called “population transfer” and is usually a war crime (except no one talks about this one for some reason). The Turkish military and the Free Syrian Army (FSA) are in full control here with no Syrian military presence. The FSA is backed by Turkey, the US, and Europe.

Light green area in the Northwest - Afrin

This area is also controlled by the Turkish military, and is the exact same story as above, population transfers and all. Syria is upset at Turkey for occupying its territory, but given how weak the Syrian regime is, there isn’t anything they can do about it. In fact, these occupations led Syria to break off diplomatic ties with Turkey.

Turkey claims it needs this area as well as the blue area to be “Kurd-free buffer zones.” Just like in the blue area, the Turks have expelled hundreds of thousands of Kurds and other minorities, and settled Syrian Arab Muslim refugees in the homes the Kurds were expelled from. Turkey has also taken over all functions of the state in these areas. And Turkish backed groups are marching on Kurdish controlled areas from the Afrin area right now.

(Civilians Flee Afrin, Source: AFP-Getty)

Dark Green area in the Northwest - Idlib

This is the area from which the Syrian rebels took Aleppo from. Hayat Tahrir a-Shams (HTS), a US and EU designated terror group that used to be Al Qaeda, is the leader of the rebel alliance and is in control of this area. Basically, around 2019, in a peace deal brokered by Turkey and Russia, the Syrian government agreed to allow HTS to control Idlib province in return for allowing civilians in 2 regime villages to leave after a three year long siege. Since then, the Islamic rebel groups have set up a mini-state in the area, with the two sides occasionally attacking each other.

Turkey supports many Islamist rebel groups here, including HTS. HTS, along with Chinese Uyghur, Russian Chechen, Uzbek, Iraqi, and other groups, have come together to take control of Aleppo, and are currently on their way to take the city of Hama. It’s widely believed that Turkey gave these rebels the green light to start attacking.

I’m not going to talk about the rest of the map (oh yea, ISIS is there too!) because otherwise we’d be here forever.

(Source: Getty)

So Why Now?

The actual assault on Aleppo began the day of the Israel-Lebanon ceasefire. There are several likely reasons why the rebels decided this was the best time to attack.

First, Hezbollah is a shell of its former self. The Lebanese terror organization was instrumental in helping the Assad regime capture and hold territory in the Syrian civil war in the 2010s. Ordered by Iran, Hezbollah was turned into a shock troop force, fighting hard and taking rebel held towns. However, Hezbollah was severely weakened in its latest war against Israel, and is no longer a factor inside Syria.

This leads to reason number two – many of the foreign forces helping the Assad regime have left Syria. Russia’s presence in the country has greatly diminished because of the war in Ukraine. Also Iran has been greatly weakened in Israeli attacks and may not have the ability to fully support and assist the Assad regime given its need to support all its regional proxies in the war against Israel taking priority.

(Syrian Rebels Capture a Syrian Arab Army Tank, Source: AP)

Third, Turkey is going through a LOT of internal strife. The economy has basically crashed and there’s huge anti-refugee sentiment in the country. Of course, the anti-refugee sentiment is aimed at Syrian refugees who settled in Turkey. Turkish PM Recep Tayyip Erdoğan is under increasing domestic pressure to figure out what to do with all these stateless people taking Turkish jobs. He likely views that having his proxies conquer territory in Syria will force Assad’s hand into opening up diplomatic relations with him to take back Syrian refugees, solving one of his largest domestic issues.

Finally, it’s possible the attack happened on the same day as the Israel-Lebanon ceasefire because that was when it’s believed that Turkey gave its greenlight to commence the operation. Erdoğan wants to be seen as the protector of the Palestinians, and therefore likely didn’t want to be seen as allowing one of the rebel groups under its control to weaken those fighting against the people fighting for Palestine.

Wait, what?

On Oct. 8^th, 2023, Hezbollah joined the fight against Israel to support the Palestinians, and that they wouldn’t stop until the fighting in Gaza stops. Hezbollah, which had troops in Syria, pulled them back to Lebanon to confront Israel. In addition to this, the Assad regime was allowing weapons to flow through its territory from Iran to Lebanon, and was also hosting several high ranking Iranian officials and Hezbollah operatives.

(Source: Reuters)

Therefore, it appears that because Erdoğan wants to fight for the Palestinian cause, it didn’t want to harm the people who were literally on the front lines against Israel (IE Hezbollah and/or its backers).

But when the ceasefire came into place, Erdoğan understood he nor his proxies would be seen as weakening the Palestinian cause, and therefore turned a blind eye as HTS went on the offensive.

However, Iran blames the US and Israel for starting this war, because of course they do.

So what happens now?

The Assad regime isn’t doing too well, losing weapons storehouses, tanks, planes, and more to the rebels. The rebels are getting stronger with each passing hour while Syrian soldiers abandon their posts and flee. There are reports coming out of Aleppo that the rebels were showering the places they’re about to attack with fliers telling civilians to leave, as well as ensuring that minority groups aren’t hurt. However, this kind of “moderation” is exactly what the Taliban did when they took over Afghanistan, pretending to be #inclusive before showing their true colors.

Assad’s control over his country, which was tenuous at best, seems to be failing. Therefore, Iran has ordered the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) in Iraq to come to Syria’s aid. The PMF are Shia units that are part of the Iraqi military but funded, armed, and controlled by Iran. With these forces, the Syrian regime might be able to stay in power. Assuming Assad can survive this, there likely won’t be any fundamental changes in what happens between Syria and Israel. We’ve seen this movie before, and things will likely just go back to the status quo.

But if Assad succeeds - not just survives - the Iranian Axis of Resistance will only get stronger, and its followers more fanatical. Iran will gain in terms of power, prestige, and credibility, drawing more people into its proxies’ ranks, and further threatening the Western led world order.

PMF Going to Syria

Yet if Assad falls, expect a situation like what happened on Israel’s border with Syria between 2014-2019, and the complete dissolution of law and order. Different factions will attempt to control different parts of the border as well as different parts of Syria, and there will be some spillover of the fighting as they attempt to destroy each other. Also, should one of these groups attempt to attack Israel, expect the Jewish State to respond harshly. And should HTS win, expect a Taliban-style state on Israel’s northern border, as well as increasing instability within Lebanon.

Meanwhile, the PMF, which shoots rockets at both US and Israeli forces, will be busy dealing with the Sunni rebels. This will give them combat experience, making them an even greater threat to the US and Israel in the future.

However, if the HTS coalition can take over Syria, Iran’s influence in the region will be severely weakened, from Lebanon to Iran itself. This means the country will pose less of a threat to US, Israeli, and Western troops in the region. If this happens, there will be a massive power vacuum, yet another Taliban style country in the region, and lots of groups rushing to the void.

Welcome to the Syrian Civil War - this time in hi-definition!